Thursday, February 23, 2006
Thinking About The Unthinkable by Herman Kahn
HERMAN Kahn was a military strategist who played war games in the borderless battlefi eld of his mind. Noted to be one of the most brilliant minds of the 20th century, Kahn was an employee of the Rand Corporation in America in the volatile `50s and the rocking `60s.
It has been noted that Herman Kahn had no experience in actual warfare but his contributions as a systems theorist and military strategist at Rand thrust him onto the forefront of the Cold War between the Soviet Union and US in the 1950s and 1960s. Kahn's seminal work on thinking about the unthinkable had probably helped shape America's nuclear strategy for the next two generations.
Kahn was the only strategist at that time who dared to examine the brutal realities of a world gone mad. Thus was born the well-known doctrine of Mutual Assured Destruction or MAD. Kahn was also responsible for bringing to the world's attention, phrases like "overkill", and "massive retaliation".
Kahn had earlier gained prominence when he published an earlier work entitled On Thermonuclear War in 1961. That laid the groundwork for Thinking About The Unthinkable in 1962. This book is all about the
shocking possibilities and counter-measures if a nuclear war were to took place between USSR and the US. Kahn's argument for engaging in mental analysis of an extremely daunting subject was that "it wasn't immoral to think about these things; on the contrary - planning for nuclear contingencies in the event deterrence fails is the only responsible, prudent and moral cause".
To help readers and his detractors to emotionally comprehend the concepts of thermonuclear war, Kahn used anecdotal illustrations and "Gedanken" experiments. Gedanken is German for "thought", and a Gedanken experiment is an analytical tool in physics and philosophy. Its aim is to argue to a satisfying conclusion all the potential consequences of an intended experiment in accordance with the laws of nature, in this case, nuclear war.
Thinking About The Unthinkable is for those who want to know the outbreak scenario, earth shock, environmental problems, genetic effects, medical aftereffects and social and political changes concerning nuclear war.
Even though the grim subject and its related topics are unpalatable for most ordinary citizens, Kahn's thoughts and their relation to global political stability in the 21st century cannot be underestimated. A discussion of mass extermination of the human race is not exactly breakfast fodder, but it is definitely food for thought in the context of present political circumstances in parts of the Middle East and Asia in present day.
If mankind were to avert such an outcome or even to think of eliminating the factors that could lead to such a horrific situation, it is prudent that man must cultivate a deep understanding of the complete scenario. Herman Kahn has clearly provided us with some vital tools that would help in defusing such an explosive issue.
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